Setareh bani sadr biography

1980 US statesmanly election theory

This article is puff the specific 1980 events. Unpolluted the general concept, see Oct surprise.

The 1980 October Surprise theory refers to the claim walk members of Ronald Reagan's statesmanly campaign covertly negotiated with Persian leaders to undermine incumbent Presidency Jimmy Carter by delaying nobleness release of 66 American hostages detained in Iran.

The pawn situation, which began when Persian revolutionaries seized the U.S. legation in Tehran, was one have a high regard for the biggest news stories come close to 1980, and Carter's inability all round resolve it is widely alleged to have contributed to dominion loss.

After 12 years lecture varying media attention, both accommodation of the United States Consultation held separate inquiries and bygone that credible evidence supporting righteousness allegation was absent or insufficient.^[1][2] Nevertheless, several individuals—most notably, previous Iranian President Abulhassan Banisadr,^[3][4] earlier Lieutenant Governor of Texas Fell Barnes, former naval intelligence political appointee and U.S.

National Security Mother of parliaments member Gary Sick,^[5] and Barbara Honegger,^[6] a former campaign docile and White House analyst fund Reagan and his successor, Martyr H. W. Bush—have stood fail to notice the allegation.

Background

Main article: Persia hostage crisis

In November 1979, skilful number of U.S.

hostages were captured in Iran during class Iranian Revolution. The Iran prisoner crisis continued into 1980; translation the November 1980 presidential choosing approached, there were concerns rafter the Republican Party that deft resolution of the crisis could constitute an "October surprise" which might give incumbent Jimmy Immunology vector enough of an electoral momentum to be re-elected.^[7] After dignity release of the hostages establish January 20, 1981, mere record after Republican challenger Ronald Reagan's inauguration, some charged that magnanimity Reagan campaign had made keen secret deal with the Persian government whereby the Iranians would hold the hostages until afterwards Reagan was elected and inaugurated.^[8]

The issue of an "October Surprise" was brought up during block investigation by a House penalty Representatives Subcommittee into how justness 1980 Reagan Campaign obtained discussion briefing materials of then-President Porter.

During that investigation, sometimes referred to as Debategate, the Subcommittee on Human Resources of rendering House Post Office and Domestic Service Committee obtained access intelligence Reagan Campaign documents. The instrument included numerous references to clever monitoring effort for any specified October Surprise. The Subcommittee, chaired by former U.S.

Representative Donald Albosta (D–MI), issued a full report on May 17, 1984, describing each type of list that was detected and neat possible source. A section illustrate the report was dedicated give a lift the October Surprise issue.^[9]

Origins

The be in first place printed instance of the Oct Surprise theory has been attributed to a story in leadership December 2, 1980, issue read Executive Intelligence Review, a publication published by followers of Lyndon LaRouche, prior to the loosen of the hostages.^[10] Written impervious to Robert Dreyfuss,^[11] the article unasked for "Iranian sources" in Paris because well as "Top level think logically sources in Reagan's inner circle" as saying that Henry Diplomatist met with representatives of Mohammad Beheshti during the week indicate November 12, 1980.^[10] The novel claimed that "pro-Reagan British common sense circles and the Kissinger faction" meeting with the Iranians disturb to eight weeks prior difficult interfered with "President Carter's efforts to secure an arms-for-hostage bargain with Teheran".^[10] The LaRouche slant returned to the story hurt the September 2, 1983, course of New Solidarity, stating "The deal ...

fell through what because the hard-line mullahs boycotted justness Majlis in late October."^[10]

The timidly garnered little attention until data of the Iran–Contra affair povertystricken in November 1986.^[12]John M. Barry of Newsweek has said avoid Iran–Contra "created fertile ground retrieve the October Surprise theory".^[10] General D'Amico in Conspiracies and Intrigue Theories in American History wrote that "[t]he arms-deal arrangement unsatisfactory credence to those who estimated Reagan was fulfilling his perceive of the October surprise agreement with Khomeni." In the Nov 24, 1986, issue of The New York Times, William Safire charged: "The geopolitical excuse offered now - that the redemption was a plan to competence post-Khomeini Iran - is clean up feeble cover-up.

Robert McFarlane premier approached the Reagan campaign break through the summer of 1980 connect with an Iranian in tow who proposed to deliver our hostages to Mr. Reagan rather get away from President Carter, thereby swinging justness U.S. election. The Reagan representatives properly recoiled, but Mr. McFarlane has had Iranian held hostages on the brain ever since."^[14] Safire's piece was based atop information he solicited from Laurence Silberman in 1984 regarding shipshape and bristol fashion brief meeting four years originally between Silberman, McFarlane, and Richard V.

Allen with a Asiatic man who proposed a course to contact someone who could influence Iran to delay representation release of the hostages difficulty order to embarrass the Hauler administration.^[16] Silberman later wrote: "Ironically, it was I who by mistake initiated the so-called 'October Surprise' story, which grew into knob utterly fantastic tale".^[16] An like chalk and cheese by Bob Woodward and Director Pincus a few days next in the November 29, 1986 The Washington Post said stray United States officials tied survive Reagan, well before the Persia Contra affair, considered an resourcefulness to sell US-made military faculties to Iran in exchange signify the hostage held there.

Description House October Surprise Task Unsympathetically credited the Woodward/Pincus article monkey raising "claims that would pass on keystones in the October Disconcert theory".

The Miami Herald published nickelanddime article by Alfonso Chardy memory April 12, 1987, that McFarlane, Silberman, and Allen had tumble with a man claiming be represent the Iranian government wallet offering the release of righteousness hostages.

Chardy's article also quoted exiled former Iranian president Abolhassan Banisadr who said he confidential learned that Beheshti and Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani were involved lecture in negotiations with the Reagan initiative to delay the release not later than the hostages until Reagan became president.^[10]

Chronology

The House October Surprise Commission Force outlined as "principal allegations" three supposed meetings between representatives of Reagan's campaign and Persian government officials in the summertime and fall of 1980 look up to delay the release of character hostages: 1) a meeting pathway Madrid during the summer, 2) a meeting at the Architect Plaza Hotel in Washington, D.C., that autumn, and 3) keen meeting in Paris in Oct.

The Task Force characterized combine other alleged meetings or train as "ancillary allegations": 1) excellent meeting at the Mayflower New zealand pub in Washington, D.C., in anciently spring 1980, 2) a period at the Churchill Hotel suspend London in the summer dominate 1980, and 3) a get-together at the Sherry Netherlands Motor hotel in New York in Jan 1981.

• March 1980: Jamshid Hashemi sonorous Gary Sick he was visited by campaign managerWilliam Casey shaft Roy Furmark while staying at the same height the Mayflower Hotel in President, D.C., in March 1980.

  Hashemi claimed Casey was aware defer to his contacts in Iran shaft wanted to discuss the Earth hostages held there. He pressing Sick that he then coeval the meeting to his "intelligence contact" Charles Cogan, then boss senior official within the CIA's Directorate of Operations. Hashemi closest testified that he was toute seule with Casey and denied forceful Sick that Furmark was credit, and that the meeting introduce Casey occurred in July 1980.

  The House October Surprise Mission Force concluded that there was no credible evidence to get somebody on your side the allegations. The Task Power said that Hashemi was authority only source of the story, that he provided no substantiate to substantiate the allegations, think about it there were major inconsistencies bayou his story to different parties, and that there was believable documentary and testimonial evidence contradictory with his allegations.

• Spring 1980: Inconvenience an October 1990 interview, Jamshid Hashemi told Gary Sick sharp-tasting was introduced to Donald Gregg, a U.S.

  National Security Meeting aide with connections to Martyr Bush, at Cyrus Hashemi's make public in New York City featureless the Spring of 1980. Jamshid told Sick that he shaft Cyrus had lunch with Gregg at a restaurant near Cyrus' office where they discussed grandeur contacts that were underway amidst the brothers and the U.S. Government.

  The House October Admiration Task Force said that they found no credible evidence meander Gregg met with the Hashemi's, and noted that Jamshid recanted the allegation in testimony stating he had never met opposed to Gregg. After Jamshid's testimony highborn that he told Sick lose concentration he met with Gregg, dirt told Sick that the in a straight line he met with was de facto Robert Gray.

  The Task In action concluded that Jamshid Hashemi's "recent statements about this matter tempt totally devoid of credibility subject probative of a tendency identify modify his allegations to acquiesce to subsequent revelations which downside inconsistent with those allegations."

• July 1980: Jamshid Hashemi was also rendering principal source for allegations go an American delegation consisting disturb William Casey, Donald Gregg, lecture another unidentified American met partner Iranian officials Mahdi Karrubi boss his brother Hassan Karrubi pass on the Hotel Ritz in Madrid.

  first in July 1980 at that time again the following month. Jamshid Hashemi claimed he and queen brother Cyrus Hashemi attended primacy meetings to provide translation usage between the two parties. According to Jamshid Hashemi, Casey engaged that in exchange for depiction hostages the new Reagan Oversight would return all of Iranian's frozen assets and military capital that had been withheld saturate Carter.

  Jamshid Hashemi said Casey instructed the Iranians to grip the hostages until after rendering election. According to Jamshid, leadership meetings ended when Karrubi aforementioned he did not have loftiness authority to make that attentiveness but would return to Tehran and seeking instructions from Man of the cloth Khomeini. The Task Force supposed they "determined that Jamshid Hashemi's allegations regarding meetings in Madrid in the summer of 1980 are fabrications" and that close to was no credible evidence harmony support them.^[25]

• About August 12, 1980: Jamshid Hashemi alleged that Karrubi met again with Casey comport yourself Madrid, saying Khomeini had allencompassing to the proposal, and consider it Casey agreed the next give to, naming Cyrus Hashimi as wholesaler to handle the arms exchange.

  Hashemi also alleged that extra meetings were set for Oct. The House October Surprise Nip Force concluded that these allegations were not credible. Cyrus Hashimi purchases a Greek ship innermost commences arms deliveries valued outburst $150 million from the Israeli tag of Eilat to Bandar Abbas. According to CIA sources, Hashimi receives a $7 million commission.^{[25][27]: 205–6}

• September 22, 1980: Iraq invades Iran.^[27]: 206
• Late Sept 1980: An expatriate Iranian blazonry dealer named Hushang Lavi claims he met with Richard Extremely.

  Allen, the Reagan campaign's internal security expert, Robert "Bud" McFarlane, and Lawrence Silberman, co-chairman simulated Ronald Reagan's foreign policy bureau during the campaign, and under discussion the possible exchange of F-4 parts for American hostages, on the contrary Lavi says they asserted they "were already in touch outstrip the Iranians themselves".^{[27]: 206–7}

• October 15–20: Meetings are held in Paris among emissaries of the Reagan-Bush offensive, with Casey as "key participant", and "high-level Iranian and Asian representatives".^[28]
• October 21: Iran, for premises not explained, abruptly shifts close-fitting position in secret negotiations business partner the Carter administration and disclaims "further interest in receiving bellicose equipment".^[29]
• October 21–23: Israel secretly ships F-4 fighter-aircraft tires to Persia, in violation of the U.S.

  arms embargo,^[29] and Iran disperses the hostages to different locations.^[30]

• January 20, 1981: Hostages are officially released into United States love after spending 444 days disclose captivity. The release takes worrying just minutes after Ronald President is sworn in as president.

Investigations

Gary Sick

The October Surprise allegations gained traction in the mainstream communication after an editorial column unresponsive to Gary Sick was published refurbish The New York Times alter ego April 15, 1991.^[31] Sick, who had served as President Carter's Iranian expert on the Stable Security Council, wrote: "I maintain been told repeatedly that begrudging associated with the Reagan-Bush initiative of 1980 met secretly concluded Iranian officials to delay excellence release of the American hostages until after the presidential choosing.

For this favor, Iran was rewarded with a substantial limited of arms from Israel."^[29][31] Indisposed wrote that members of greatness Reagan-Bush campaign had met get the gist high-level representatives of Iran boss Israel in a series depose meeting in Paris between Oct 15–20, 1980, and that thither were 15 sources who challenging direct or indirect knowledge admire the event.^[29][31]

Sick later published on the rocks book (October Surprise: America's Hostages in Iran and the Plebiscite of Ronald Reagan),^[5] published crate November 1991, on the angle.

Sick's credibility was boosted uninviting the fact that he was a retired naval captain, served on Ford's, Carter's, and Reagan's National Security Council, and kept high positions with many noticeable organizations; moreover, he had authored a book recently on US-Iran relations (All Fall Down). Nauseated wrote that in October 1980, officials in Ronald Reagan's statesmanlike campaign, including future CIA Administrator William Casey, made a alien deal with Iran to defer the release of the Land hostages until after the election; in return for this, rectitude United States purportedly arranged quandary Israel to ship weapons count up Iran.

Sick admitted that "The story is tangled and smoke-darkened, and it may never wool fully unraveled." He was ineffectual to prove his claims, containing that, in the days beforehand the presidential election with customary press pools surrounding him keep from a public travel schedule, tap presidential candidate George H. Vulnerable. Bush secretly left the power and met with Iranian administration in France to discuss grandeur fate of the hostages.^[32]

Frontline Transactions Robert Parry

Sick's editorial in The New York Times directed readers to watch the investigative film program Frontline the following crepuscular to view interviews of coronet sources.^[31] In the Frontline period released on April 16, 1991, Robert Parry "investigate[d] startling unique evidence about how both illustriousness Carter and Reagan camps might have tried to forge privilege deals for [the Iranian] hostages during the 1980 presidential campaign."^[33] The program presented allegations 1) that Cyrus Hashemi and William Casey met in Madrid spoil delay the release of interpretation hostages, 2) that there was a meeting in Paris line of attack finalize the deal, and 3) that there were shipments accord American-made arms from Israel join Iran.

In a second episode unbound on April 7, 1992, Please "investigate[d] whether or not William Casey, Reagan's campaign director, could have met with Iranians close in Paris and Madrid in high-mindedness summer of 1980."^[35] This info discussed the alleged whereabouts discount Casey and Mehdi Karroubi, nobility credibility of witnesses to nobility meetings, and other theories admiration the alleged evidence.

Danny Casolaro

In Esteemed 1991, freelance writer Danny Casolaro (among others)^[37] claimed to have on almost ready to expose interpretation alleged October surprise conspiracy, as he suddenly died a cruel death in a hotel bath in Martinsburg, West Virginia, tending suspicions.

He appeared to do an impression of traveling on leads for sovereign investigation into the Inslaw Argument. His death was ruled a-ok suicide. The case was goodness subject of a 2024 Netflix docuseries titled American Conspiracy: Righteousness Octopus Murders.

Newsweek

Newsweek magazine further ran an investigation, reporting tag on November 1991 that most, conj admitting not all, of the toll bill of fare made were groundless.

Specifically, Newsweek found little evidence that decency United States had transferred clinch to Iran prior to Persia Contra, and was able lodging account for William Casey's situation when he was allegedly putrefy the Madrid meeting, saying lapse he was at a convention in London. Newsweek also designated that the story was produce heavily pushed within the LaRouche Movement.^[38]

The New Republic

Steven Emerson illustrious Jesse Furman of The Additional Republic also looked into grandeur allegations and reported, in Nov 1991, that "the conspiracy considerably currently postulated is a finalize fabrication".

They were unable turn into verify any of the vestige presented by Sick and consumers, finding them to be contradictory and contradictory in nature. They also pointed out that close to every witness of Sick's abstruse either been indicted or was under investigation by the Arm of Justice. Like the Newsweek investigation, they had also debunked the claims of Reagan choice campaign officials being in Town during the timeframe that Qualmish specified, contradicting Sick's sources.^[39]

The Native Voice

Retired CIA analyst and undercover work officer Frank Snepp of The Village Voice reviewed Sick's allegations, publishing an article in Feb 1992.

Snepp alleged that In poor health had only interviewed half make acquainted the sources used in ruler book, and supposedly relied tiptoe hearsay from unreliable sources execute large amounts of critical theme. Snepp also discovered that Poorly had sold the rights run alongside his book to Oliver Chum in 1989.

After going give the brushoff evidence presented by Richard Brenneke, Snepp asserted that Brenneke's desert card receipts showed him come to be in Portland, Oregon, before the time he claimed concord be in Paris observing description secret meeting.^[40]

Senate investigation

The US Senate's November 1992 report concluded range "by any standard, the plausible evidence now known falls faraway short of supporting the application of an agreement between honesty Reagan campaign and Iran give somebody no option but to delay the release of glory hostages."

House of Representatives investigation

Main article: House October Surprise Task Force

The House of Representatives' January 1993 report concluded "there is thumb credible evidence supporting any undertake by the Reagan presidential campaign—or persons associated with the campaign—to delay the release of goodness American hostages in Iran".

Depiction task force Chairman Lee Pirouette. Hamilton (D-Indiana) also added drift the vast majority of authority sources and material reviewed dampen the committee were "wholesale fabricators or were impeached by flick evidence". The report also explicit the belief that several witnesses had committed perjury during their sworn statements to the body, among them Richard Brenneke,^[43] who claimed to be a CIA agent.^[44]

Allegations

It is now very thick that there were two winnow agreements, one the official in person with Carter in Algeria, description other, a secret agreement resume another party, which, it attempt now apparent, was Reagan.

They made a deal with President that the hostages should beg for be released until after President became president. So, then derive return, Reagan would give them arms. We have published instrument which show that US capitulation were shipped, via Israel, send back March, about 2 months fend for Reagan became president.

— Former Persian President Abolhassan Banisadr^[45]

This accusation was made in Banisadr's 1989 memoir,^[3] which also claimed that Rhetorician Kissinger plotted to set pop round a Palestinian state in righteousness Iranian province of Khuzestan deed that Zbigniew Brzezinski conspired fitting Saddam Hussein to plot Iraq's 1980 invasion of Iran.

Foreign Affairs described the book hoot "a rambling, self-serving series chief reminiscences" and "long on shocking allegations and devoid of that might lend credence join Bani-Sadr's claims".^[46]

Writing again in 2013 in The Christian Science Monitor, Banisadr reiterated and elaborated encourage his earlier statements:

I was deposed in June 1981 style a result of a phase in against me.

After arriving increase twofold France, I told a BBC reporter that I had consider Iran to expose the symbiotic relationship between Khomeinism and Reaganism. Ayatollah Khomeini and Ronald President had organized a clandestine agreement, later known as the "October Surprise", which prevented the attempts by myself and then-US Pilot Jimmy Carter to free say publicly hostages before the 1980 Unfaltering presidential election took place.

Grandeur fact that they were watchword a long way released tipped the results pass judgment on the election in favor observe Reagan.

Two of my council, Hussein Navab Safavi and Sadr-al-Hefazi, were executed by Khomeini's r‚gime because they had become enlightened of this secret relationship halfway Khomeini, his son Ahmad, dignity Islamic Republican Party, and position Reagan administration.^[47]

Barbara Honegger

Barbara Honegger was a campaign staffer^[48] and method analyst for Reagan^[49] who prepared to accept her post as a important assistant in the United States Department of Justice Civil Title Division in 1983 after pronounce criticizing what she claimed was the administration's lack of contract to gender equality.^[50] She claims that while working for President she discovered information that feeling her believe that George Rotate.

W. Bush and William Casey had conspired to assure digress Iran would not free say publicly U.S. hostages until Jimmy President had been defeated in character 1980 presidential election, and she alleges that arms sales supplement Iran were a part cataclysm that bargain.^{[6][non-primary source needed]} Eliminate 1987, in the context give an account of the Iran–Contra investigations, Honegger was reported as saying that in a minute after October 22, 1980, while in the manner tha Iran abruptly changed the price of its deal with Bearer, a member of the President campaign told her "We don't have to worry about untainted 'October surprise.' Dick cut well-ordered deal," with "Dick" referring tot up Richard V.

Allen.^[48][51]

Michael Riconosciuto

In circumstances of his involvement in glory Inslaw affair, Michael Riconosciuto described that Reagan associate Earl Brian worked on an agreement polished the Iranian government to temporize the release of the hostages, and that the software was stolen in order to enlist funds for Brian's payment.^[52]

Kevin Phillips

Political historian Kevin Phillips has back number a proponent of the thought.

In his 2004 book American Dynasty, although Phillips concedes turn this way many of the specific allegations were proven false, he too argues that in his be of the same mind, Reagan campaign officials "probably" were involved in a scheme "akin to" the specific scheme avowed by Sick.^[53]

Chase Bank revelations

In fine memoir by Joseph V.

Manner Jr. it is revealed turn this way the "team" around David Industrialist "collaborated closely with the President campaign in its efforts cause somebody to pre-empt and discourage what option derisively labeled an "October surprise" — a pre-election release designate the American hostages, the record office show. The Chase team helped the Reagan campaign gather contemporary spread rumors about possible payoffs to win the release, trim propaganda effort that Carter authority officials have said impeded union to free the captives."^[54]

Duane "Dewey" Clarridge

Shortly after the death systematic Duane Clarridge in April 2016, Newsweek published an article emergency Nicholas Schou claiming that excellence former CIA operations officer ray Iran–Contra figure had previously low him that the October Astound conspiracy as depicted in Martyr Cave's novel, October 1980, was "really true".

Schou noted go Cave denied actually believing desert officials working on behalf stand for Reagan plotted to delay leadership release of the hostages.^[55]

Declassified 1980 CIA memo

In 2017, a declassified CIA 1980 memo was unattached in which the agency over "Iranian hardliners – especially Presbyter Khomeini" were "determined to accomplishment the hostage issue to accompany about President Carter's defeat diminution the November elections."^[56]MuckRock, a exhort organization specialized in Freedom break into Information Act requests, argued consider it "While the document doesn't form the Reagan campaign intended however collude with Iran, it does document Iran's motives and matches the October Surprise narrative defined by former CIA officers Martyr Cave and Duane 'Dewey' Clarridge."^[56]

Ben Barnes

In March 2023, Peter Baker reported in The New Royalty Times that former Texas regulator John Connally, who had requisite the Republican presidential nomination detect 1980, travelled to several Arabian countries and Israel between July 1980 and August 1980.

According to Connally's close associate Mountain Barnes, who accompanied him solve the trip, Connally told ethics Arab officials whom he support with to relay a investigate to Iran to the desert that "Ronald Reagan's going appendix be elected president and prickly need to get the chat to Iran that they're prosperous to make a better covenant with Reagan than they bear witness to Carter." Barnes also recounted resultant Connally to a September 1980 meeting in Houston in which Connally briefed William J.

Casey, Reagan's campaign manager and topping central figure in many versions of the "October Surprise" view, on the outcome of ethics trip, with Casey specifically request if "[the Iranians] were milky to hold the hostages."^[57]

While around is documentation that this animated film to the Middle East occurred and that Connally communicated interview close Reagan associates during influence trip, Baker states that nearly are "no diaries or memos to corroborate" Barnes's recollection show signs of what, specifically, Connally told character Arab officials.

Additionally, Barnes's assimilate does not confirm "debunked past theories of what happened," specified as the Reagan campaign motility an arms-for-hostages agreement with Persia prior to the outcome accuse the 1980 election. Barnes out of favour scrutiny during the congressional "October Surprise" investigations, but his chronicle about Connally had been in advance published in H.

W. Brands's 2015 biography of Reagan, even though "generat[ing] little public notice comic story the time" according to Baker. Barnes acknowledged not being back a position to assess lonely involvement by Reagan himself thwart the effect (if any) avoid Connally's overture may have abstruse on Iranian actions.^[57]

In May 2023, Sick, former Carter administration Basic Domestic Policy AdvisorStuart E.

Eizenstat, author Kai Bird, and newswoman Jonathan Alter published an scoop in The New Republic delimitation the various allegations and exact evidence (including Barnes' allegations) saunter have emerged in the decades following the earlier investigations, publication the credibility of the intent to be "all but settled."^[58]

See also

References

External links